Thursday, May 9, 2013

Western Conference


The Western Conference roundup will be in the same format as the Eastern Conference. The west is stronger conference top to bottom and expect the last playoff spots to be highly contested. This was originally written and ready to go up Wednesday, but I decided to hold off a day to incorporate the mid week games


#ClubPTSGPPPGWLTGFGAGDHGHGDRGRGD
1FC Dallas21102.1613161061076-1
2Real Salt Lake17111.5554211101625-1
3Portland Timbers15101.5316151237281
4LA Galaxy1481.7542212578641
5San Jose Earthquakes14111.273351214-2913-3
6Colorado Rapids12101.234389-1503-1
7Chivas USA1191.223421215-37-15-2
8Vancouver Whitecaps991243913-4623-6
9Seattle Sounders FC981.1323367-11-150


FC DALLAS  2.1 PPG

FC Dalllas has surprised many, including myself, in their red hot start. From the beginning of the year on this team boasted tremendous firepower there many question was in playing well together and maintaining a good shape. With George John playing great has anchored a solid back row. More importantly the moving Michel from outside back to defensive midfielder (he did play there towards the end of last season) has really solidified the teams shape and added defensive bite. So far Dallas has scored 15 goals, with no production from Kenny Cooper (though he is second on the team with 20 shots) and Eric Hassli. This could lead to and even more explosive offense later in the season or problems in the dressing room. I don't see Dallas maintaining the top spot all season but they seem to have enough to make the playoffs. Expect them to finish third.

LA Galazy 1.75 PPG

LA is already firing on all cylinders and don't have Landon Donovan up to form. Especially impressive was two weeks ago when LA went to Salt Lake and put on an impressive 2-0 win, without Donovan or Keane. The early goals were well taken, although against a lackluster RSL defense. More impressive was the defensive performance in the second half when RSL tried everything but LA played an impressive 451, then a 541 and although forgoing possession kept RSL from scoring. Expect a major Designated Player signing this summer and for LA to have the best record in the west.


Real Salt Lake  1.55 PPG

Real Salt Lake retooled this past year jettisoning Olave, Espindola and Johnson, and picking up Plata, Stephenson and promising youngster Olmes Garcia. So far the gamble seems to have paid off. The team is competing in the west and seems to have a good shot in the playoffs.  RSL's biggest weakness is their inability to score enough goals, and a defense that can shut off from time to time. If RSL can figure out how to turn their possession into more potent attack and beat LA they can challenge for another MLS Cup. Expect them to end up second in the west.


Portland Timbers 1.5 PPG

Caleb Porters men have given the Timbers Army plenty to cheer for this season. Boasting of off season signings, In Ryan Johnson, Will Johnson and Diego Valeri. Will Johnson especially has revitalized the team, anchoring the midfield and adding bite and fire to the team. (It is early but it looks like he could be to Portland what Kyle Beckerman has been to Johnson's former team, Salt Lake.) This team is still inconsistent but should still make the playoffs. Expect the team to end up fourth.

San Jose Earthquakes  1.27 PPG

San Jose has still retained its knack for furious late comebacks, but this year it is for ties rather wins. San Jose still has a solid core but is starting to draw suspensions, for its thuggish reputation, both on the field and in the stands. Expect San Jose to finish fifth if playing the same. This team can score and does not give up but still gives up lots of chances on the other end. I am not sure their wide open physical style will give them the same result this year.  Though I could seem them challenging for second or third if they go on a run an tighten up the ship Expect them to finish fifth with the last playoff spot.


Chivas USA  1.22 PPG

Chivas has been one of the great surprises of the season. El Chelis has a group that is determined and plays open soccer. Chivas main weakness is also their strength. They are unpredictable, playing with formations rarely if ever employed in MLS  with a squad where most of the players are unknown quantities, makes Chivas difficult to prepare for. Especially the first time. Chivas will make life difficult for opponents and will be in a fight for the last playoff spot. Expect them to push for the last playoff spot with about SJ, Seattle and Vancouver but finish eighth, though fifth is there for the taking.


Colorado Rapids 1.2 PPG

The Rapids have had impressive season thus far. The team many predicted to be near the bottom of the western conference standings has gotten off to a decent start. Led by Rookies Dillon Powers and DerShon Brown as well as the best story in MLS Clint Irwin. This team is playing well and bound to fight for a playoff spot. Unfortunately the West is too stacked for a so many inexperienced players to drag the team into the playoffs. Expect them to drop to the ninth spot in the west but I could seem them finish as high as sixth if some of the more veteran teams do not get their act together.



Seattle Sounders  FC 1.13 PPG

If some of the earlier teams where surprising successes to start the season than these last two teams are definite disappointments. Seattle boasting one the highest payrolls in the league was built to challenge for trophies. This team however is challenging to score more than one goal a game. To be honest for all Seattle has done right since entering the league, and there are lots of things, they have not done the greatest job with evaluating players, and it is beginning to catch up with them. I think it is arguable that they have done a worse job in recruiting DP's and other signings than Red Bull, although Seattle has done better on the field. In contrast to LA which seems to never make a bad signing. I think that Seattle has the talent to get them in the playoffs. Especially if Martins can get healthy and playing well with Eddie Johnson and Steve Zakuani. However I do not think that they will need to get a midfielder who can contribute to the offense to play alongside Osvaldo Alonso, and figure out how to get runners like Johnson, Zakuani, Martins, and even Martinez to be able to play with Mauro Rosales something that has not happened yet this year if the team is really going to challenge for the Cup. This team is still good enough to make waves this year and get in the playoffs and just getting a draw in KC, before the late game winner, was an improvement. Expect them to challenge for the playoffs I just don't know if they can get there as presently constituted so I place them sixth just being edged out by San Jose. However with some retooling they will be right back in contention and wreck my predictions.

Vancouver Whitecaps  1 PPG

Vancouver has been battling their Cascadia Rival to the south for most disappointing start to the season. This is a team that should be in playoff contention. Unlike Seattle Vancouver is really not built for the expectations of winning the cup, but the team is more balanced than Seattle and has a good mix of midfielders forwards and defensive depth. The Whitecaps biggest problem is a lack of consistency in lineup and formations. Squad rotation is not bad, but when the formation and playing style rotate as much as the players, it is hard for the team to have any continuity or identity. Many of the playing time decisions are confusing. Darren Mattocks, the star from last year is hardly playing. The team brought in two quality veteran midfielders, but the defensive Nigel Reo Cooker seems to have more say on the offense than the technical creative Daigo Kobayashi.  Vancouver should be on course to make the playoffs. On paper they have a better team just as good or better than Portland or Dallas. However this team does not look to be going anywhere and with out some dramatic improvements and maybe some changes expect them to finish 7th in a push for the last spot in.

Monday, May 6, 2013

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

Sorry it has been a few weeks. I have started a new project that has kept me occupied for the next month or two. I will still be maintaining this blog but on a more sporadic basis.

We are about a third of the way into the MLS season so a good time to look at the table and see where teams stand, and compare that to where we think they will end up. Since the playoffs are deemed more important than the Supporters Shield. (regardless of how you or anyone feels, the league has designed the the Shield to be a trophy of lesser importance to that of the MLS Cup) I will only focus conference standing and playoff position.


EASTERN CONFERENCE


Eastern Conference

#ClubPTSGPPPGWLTGFGAGDHGHGDRGRGD
1New York Red Bulls17111.555421613363100
2Sporting Kansas City17101.753214869650
3Houston Dynamo1791.895221394964-2
4Montreal Impact1782.1351211746450
5Columbus Crew1291.3333312845272
6Philadelphia Union1291.333331214-25-17-1
7New England Revolution981.1323346-2212-3
8Chicago Fire780.88251614-85-11-7
9Toronto FC790.781441013-3802-3
10D.C. United480.5161413-94-30-6

As can be seen at the chart (copied from MLS.com) there is a four way tie with 17 points at the top of the Eastern Conference with a two way tie on 12 points for 5th place and the last playoff spot. For some reason the MLS website as decided to list the standings with the team having played the most games first. This seems absurd to me because teams that have games in hand have more opportunity for further point accumulation and will more than likely end the year with a higher standing.  It would be better to judge teams when all teams have played 10 games, but we can't. So I think it is best to then judge teams but their points per game. This would have the standings as such

Montreal Impact    2.13 PPG

They have been the best team in the East so far in the season. They started out like gang busters going on the road and wining in Seattle and Portland before wining their home opener. They have cooled down but as long as they are able to keep healthy they should be near the top of the standings. I predict that they will end up fourth. They can go higher if they can keep their aging crop of stars healthy and productive through a full MLS summer, or if some of the back ups, like Collen Warner can step up and be productive. 

Houston Dynamo 1.89 PPG

Houston is always a strong force in the league. They do not play pretty and they have an absurd home field advantage, with the narrow field and Houston heat in the summer. Hopefully the league finally steps up and makes Houston play on a wider field.Houston is the safe bet to represent the Eastern Conference in the finals but I would assume they would come in around second or even third in the standings. Houston is not going to push for the supporter shield and will instead just want to have a solid year and get in the playoffs. 

Sporting Kansas City 1.7 PPG

KC is still trying to sort out there play, after revamping over the summer. Out are Kamara, although he is coming back at least in the short term, and Espinoza. The team looks more dynamic and varied with a  new midfield look with Feilhaber and Nagmoura featuring, and Zusi playing higher up as a wide forward in the 433. Expect SKC to have the best record in the east although they will not be as direct this year as last they have the quality to still be the best team in the East. That is until the lose to Houston in the playoffs the one team they can never seem to beat. 

New York Red Bull   1.5 PPG

Started off in typical Metro fashion with poor start and dysfunction  Have come on strong late with goals from Cahill and some great play from Henry and you are starting to see this team gel. NY has lots of talent but along history of dysfunction. I think they put it together this year and earn second right above Houston. 

Tie--  Columbus Crew 1.33 PPG

Columbus has a good nucleus of players but lacks depth. They have a decent defense when Chad Marshall is playing well but struggle with out him or when he is struggling. As for Marshall he is a very good defender and is starting to get back to his form a few years ago after some struggles the last few years. I think he will continue to be a quality MLS centerback for years to come and do not think he should be in  a USMNT jersey again. He lacks quality on the ball and his last caps seemed to destroyed his club form as well. Expect the crew to have enough veteran leadership to hold on to the 5th spot in the east.

Tie-- Philadelphia Union 1.33 PPG

A good young team that has some exciting players, and will be fun to watch this season. If they are able to sort out there roster issues and get Kleberson to be a DP worthy contributor they could force their way into the playoffs. I don't expect that to happen unfortunately, this team seems to be plagued with some head scratching player decisions.

New England Revolution 1.13 PPG

On paper New England should be better than they are. Juan Toja has been underwhelming on his return to the league. Does not seem to be the same player who made such an impression at Dallas. Jeremy Bengston and Nguyen also seem to not have enough to carry this team. If New England can score goals, 4 in the first 9 games, they can challenge in the east.  The rev's seemed to be lost and I would not expect them to do much in this year. 

Chicago Fire .88 PPG

Like the other two teams on the bottom of this list their roster is a mess. They should have enough fire power to make a run but I don't expect much out of Chicago this year. expect them to be 7th.

Toronto FC .78 PPG

Toronto made some good signings in the offseason but not sure there roster has enough quality to compete in the league. For every time they seem to turn a corner as a team they go to Montreal and lose 6-0. Expect them to be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

DC United .5 PPG

DC has a few quality pieces and its share of signings that are not working out. If DC can strengthen there squad with some good offensive aquistions this summer, and those signing gel well with the squad expect another late playoff push. This team still has DeRosario and Pontious. However if they same people making the signings are the ones who keep bringing in players who struggle to adapt to MLS DC will have to fight to stay above Toronto on the bottom of the Eastern Conference. 


Well that is it for the East. Look for Tomorrow and the Western Conference.